1. Coke
Last week, j2105 contracts fell in shock. Last week, coke market continued to operate weakly, and some steel mills have opened a fourth round of reduction of 100 yuan / ton, and the scope of subsequent reduction will be further expanded, and market sentiment is not high. Coke enterprises have high enthusiasm in production, and the overall start-up continues to maintain a high level. Recently, the coke enterprises are not shipping smoothly, and some factories have some tired warehouse conditions. The downstream steel plant procurement enthusiasm is not high, combined with the recent environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan area, the start of blast furnace in steel plant has declined, coke demand is weakened, and the bearish expectation of enterprises is enhanced. With stable supply and weak demand, coke price still has downward space. Technically, the j2105 contract fell in shock last week, and the weekly MACD index showed that the green kinetic energy column continued to expand and the downward pressure was relatively high. Operation suggestion: throw out the air near 2260 yuan / ton, and refer to 2300 yuan / ton for stop loss.
2. Iron ore
Spot prices in the iron ore period last week were weak. In early Zhou, due to the air pollution in some parts of Hebei Province, the production restriction measures were implemented again. The spot demand of iron ore was reduced. The available days of imported iron ore in steel plant increased to depress the ore price. The i2105 contract fell more than 9% on March 9. On Thursday, the price rose first and then fell, indicating that iron ore tended to be weak. The domestic iron ore port inventory continues to increase in this period, and the spot supply is relatively loose. Meanwhile, the decline of blast furnace start rate and capacity utilization rate in steel plant has a certain pressure on the price of iron ore. however, the current i2105 contract is still deep in spot and the steel price is strong, which also supports the ore price. Therefore, the operation rhythm should be paid attention to this week for the period price of iron ore or the continuation of wide-ranging consolidation. It is suggested that the short line should consider high throw and low purchase in 1100-1000 interval, and stop loss of 20 yuan / ton.
3. Threaded steel
Last week, the spot price of the steel in the period of thread steel was first suppressed and then raised. At the beginning of the week, the spot price of the steel thread steel was under pressure due to the weakness of raw materials and the high level of Tangshan billet. On Thursday, the low level rebounded. Due to the environmental pressure of Tangshan, the spot price of the billet and the low-level resources in the spot market rose, and the speculative demand of the market increased, and the transaction volume was released. This week, the futures price of thread steel or the high-level wide range consolidation will continue. In terms of supply, the weekly output of construction steel and the starting rate of electric furnace steel in long process steel plant will continue to increase, and the spot supply is relatively loose; in terms of demand, the terminal demand will continue to release, the spot volume will rise sharply and the stock inflection point will appear; finally, the high level of raw materials will fall back and the cost support will be weakened, but the main production area of steel products will be reduced Environmental pressure and production reduction are expected to boost market sentiment in a phased manner. It is suggested that short-term line can be considered in 4600-4850 interval, with a stop loss of 50 yuan / ton.
4. Stainless steel
Last week, the stainless steel 2105 was in low position. Domestic stainless steel production maintains a high level. With the arrival of the source of goods, the inventory also reaches a high level, which makes the market wait-and-see sentiment strong. However, the news of high ice nickel put into production in Qingshan gradually digested, and the low nickel price has stabilized recently. Due to the domestic electricity restriction policy and the tension of coke in South Africa, the output of ferrochromium has declined, the price of chromium iron is strong, the profits of stainless steel production are thin, and the power for further increase of steel plant is limited. With the gradual improvement of downstream demand, the 300 series storehouse has a small decline in recent years, supporting steel price stabilizes. Technically, the main stainless steel 2105 contract contracted to reduce the volume of the warehouse, careful trading, attention to 14000 level competition, short-term low-level adjustment is expected. In operation, it is suggested that the light warehouse in the range of 13800-14400 yuan / ton is operated more and the stop loss is 150 yuan / ton.
5. Corn
Internationally, the USDA report of the United States raised the global corn production and end of the inventory, which had a neutral and negative impact on the corn market. However, the weather in South America is uncertain and the future of corn production is still in the speculation space. In China, the market is still in a tight balance. Traders have strong willingness to support prices, and the inventory of deep processing enterprises is not much, which all support the price. However, with the gradual rise of temperature, some farmers in Northeast China have increased their willingness to sell grain, and some traders who have put in the third capital have also successively exported grain. The spot purchase price continues to decline, which has hindered the fall of futures prices. In terms of demand, the swine plague in Africa is constantly in waves, the pig storage column has declined for two months in a row, and the feed consumption after the festival has entered the off-season. In addition, there are more alternative grains in downstream feed enterprises, and the replacement proportion is increasing, and the procurement of feed enterprises has slowed down significantly. Overall, it is expected to maintain a high level of shock consolidation in the short-term, and focus on the next policy information guidance. Corn 2105 was in the market.
6. Starch
With the gradual rise of temperature, the willingness of some farmers in Northeast China to sell grain is increasing, and some traders who put in the third fund also successively export grain. The spot purchase price of corn has declined slightly, which has hindered the price of starch falling with the high level of corn. In addition, the processing profit of corn starch industry is good, and the industry start rate is rising rapidly. In March, most enterprises will resume full production and operation, and the market supply is clear The demand of downstream is increasing significantly, while the demand of downstream is recovering slowly. The low purchasing intensity of high price and low willingness of large amount of purchase drag down the performance of starch price. However, some downstream enterprises have the willingness to replenish the stock, which makes the corn starch enterprises' inventory decrease slightly. In addition, corn price is still at a high level, under the pressure of cost, corn starch enterprises maintain a positive price mentality, and provide support for the futures market. It is expected that corn starch will be mainly operated with corn shock, and corn starch 2105 will participate in the contract plate.
